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Merancang Masa Depan Menggunakan Scenario Planning dan Analysis

Masa depan direncanakan, dibentuk, dan dirancang; bukan diperkirakan apalagi diramalkan. Salah satu langkah paling imajinatif dalam ilmu merancang masa depan (Foresight) adalah Scenario Planning & Analysis – Perencanaan dan Analisis Skenario. Karena, masa depan tidak tunggal. Ia punya banyak ke-mungkin-terjadi-annya (plausibility). Untuk mampu menerawang berbagai kemungkinan itu, perencanaan dan analisis skenario menjadi kunci.

Nalar mengupas secara sistematis cara merancang dan menganalisis skenario sebagai bagian dari upaya membentuk masa depan. Agar kita tidak tanpa sadar ‘berjalan dalam tidur’ ke masa depan.

REFERENSI

  1. Adam Kahane, 2012, Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future, Berrett-Koehler Publishers: San Francisco
  2. The Dinokeng Scenarios
  3. Johan Brosché, 2007, “CPA – New Sudan, Old Sudan or Two Sudans? A Review of the Implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement” in Ulf Johansson Dahre (ed.), “Post-Conflict Peace-Building in the Horn of Africa” – A Report of the 6th Annual Conference on the Horn of Africa, Lund, August 24-26, 2007
  4. The Great Zimbabwe Scenarios (2010-12), Mharidzo-Ndoro, 2010
  5. Ian Miles: Foresight Helps to Form a Common Vision of the Future,
  6. Miles, Ian, 2008, From Futures to Foresight, in Luke Georghiou (Ed), The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts & Practice, Cheltenham UK and Massachusetts USA.
  7. Miles, Ian, 2010, The Development of Technology Foresight: A Review, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9):1448-1456
  8. Miles, Ian, 2012, Dynamic Foresight Evaluation, Foresight 14(1):69-81
  9. Miles, I, Harper, JC, Georghiou, L, Keenan, M, Popper, R, 2008, The Many Faces of Foresight, in Luke Georghiou (Ed), The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts & Practice, Cheltenham UK and Massachusetts USA.
  10. Miles, I, Saritas, O, Sokolov, A, 2016, Foresight for Science, Technology & Innovation, Springer: UK.
  11. Saritas, O., Nugroho, Y. (2012) ‘Mapping issues and envisaging futures: An evolutionary scenario approach’, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(3):509-529
  12. Nugroho, Y., Saritas, O. (2011). Seeing the invisible and making sense of it. Scanning, networks and scenario analysis (Увидеть и осознать невидимое. Сканирование, сетевой и сценарный анализ). Foresight Russia Journal, 5(2):58-69
  13. Nugroho, Y., Saritas, O. (2009) ‘Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: A methodological proposal’ Foresight, vol 11(6):21-4

Producer: Yanuar Nugroho
Producer assistant: Hofyan Nazaki
DOP & editor: Vaizal Andrians
Art director: Hari Saptomo
Footage video & music: Videvo & YouTube Music Library

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